PMF Signal

Idea research for solo founders

Every other tool tells you your idea has potential. This one tells you no.

A 16-section research report on one business idea, judged against your actual budget, hours and skills — every claim carrying a source, and a verdict allowed to be BUILD, PIVOT, or PASS. Most tools can only say yes. Run against its own operator's real constraints, this one has come back BUILD only 3 times out of 13.

13 reports published · 10 of them came back PIVOT or PASS, unedited

How it works

Three inputs, one report, about 15 minutes.

  1. 01

    Set your constraints

    2 minutes, free. Cash per bet, hours per week, revenue goal, five skill axes. Answer once — every verdict from then on is measured against it.

  2. 02

    Describe one idea, or drop in a document

    One paragraph is enough. Already have it written down — yours or someone else's? Attach it instead (markdown, plain text, or PDF) and the research reads that directly, no retyping.

  3. 03

    Get the report in about 15 minutes

    Sixteen sections, live web research, verbatim receipts with links, and a BUILD / PIVOT / PASS verdict. You'll get an email the moment it's ready — nothing to sit and watch.

The problem

The tools built to judge your idea are built to agree with you.

This isn't a taste complaint. It's a mechanical property of how these models are trained: reinforcement from human feedback rewards agreeableness, so your idea has potential, and here's how to improve it outscores this will fail because your unit economics don't work. Founders are the worst-exposed group — selected for conviction, and asking in possessive language the model reads as a cue to defer.

“AI is often very good at telling you what you want to hear. This can create the illusion of validation when what you are really getting is a response influenced by your framing and a model designed to be helpful and cooperative.”

Inc. — Diana Bocco, 2026

You cannot fix that with a better prompt — the model will comply with "be harsh" and still find a way to like your idea. It has to be structural, and it has to be checkable:

  • The verdict is scored, not written. Pain, timing, market ceiling and founder fit are scored independently before the verdict is composed, so the number constrains the prose rather than the prose picking the number.
  • Unsourced claims are cut. Every report opens with what was reachable and what wasn't — sources hit, sources blocked, verbatim receipts counted, fabricated quotes always zero.
  • And then there's the record. Run against its own operator's real constraints, it has come back BUILD only 3 times out of 13 — every one published unedited.

The record

3 of 13 came back BUILD. The rest are here too.

Every verdict this engine has issued against its own operator's real constraints, unedited. Click through to any of them.

3BUILD
6PIVOT
4PASS

From two real reports

What "every claim carries a source" actually looks like.

BUILD7.3/10

Caretaker

5. The receipts

"Sure, the app 'works' but it's built in a way that only the original dev can maintain — and even that won't last long. And guess what happens next? The original dev disappears…"r/automation · AutomationLikeCrazy · May 2025 · 493↑, 121 comments
Read all sixteen sections →
PASS5.7/10

Night Shift for Robots

9. The verdict — reasons to not build

"The graveyard is well-funded. Phantom Auto burned $95M and died in this exact space — teleoperation was written down as a 'bridge technology' by investors. If $95M couldn't make the economics work, $1K won't."Reasons to not build, scored against a sub-$1,000 budget
Read all sixteen sections →

Why the verdict is different

A verdict is only worth reading if it can say no to you specifically.

Judged against your constraints

Competitors score an idea against a generic rubric. This scores it against a file you own — cash per bet, hours per week, revenue goal, five skill axes. Change the file and the verdicts change with it.

One report found real pain, a dated regulatory tailwind and a live competitor at $18K MRR — and still returned PASS, because a single overnight staffed seat costs ~$3,400/month against a sub-$1,000 budget.

Every report argues against itself

Reasons to not build has to be the most credible section on the page. A claim without a source is cut, or labelled an assumption in the text.

Each report opens with what was reachable and what wasn't — sources hit, sources blocked, verbatim receipts counted, fabricated quotes always zero.

What $9 buys

Sixteen sections. No placeholders, no cheerleading.

  1. 01The idea
  2. 02Fact strip
  3. 03The numbers
  4. 04Why now
  5. 05The receipts
  6. 06Whitespace
  7. 07Proof & signals
  8. 08Who you're up against
  9. 09The verdict
  10. 10Founder fit
  11. 11Value ladder
  12. 12The plan
  13. 13Napkin math
  14. 14The ceiling
  15. 15Playbook prompts
  16. 16Verdict & next move

If it comes back PIVOT or PASS, the same report can offer a $5 follow-up on a variant it already found — no second research pass. If it comes back BUILD, $19 buys the fifteen-section build roadmap, and unlocks drafting a PRD, landing page, or go-to-market plan for any report, from your own connected agent.

Price

Buy reports, not another subscription.

You already pay $20/month for an assistant that will research anything you ask — and agree with all of it. This isn't a second subscription. It's $9, once, for the one research task your assistant is structurally unable to do: return a verdict against you.

TierPriceWhat it contains
Single reportMost popular$9One full 16-section report
Three-pack$24Three reports, no expiry
Ten-pack$69Ten reports, no expiry
Variant report$5A follow-up report on an alternative your PASS or PIVOT named
Execution plan$19Roadmap for one adopted idea, plus enhanced MCP (PRD, landing page, GTM plan)

The $5 variant report is offered on the report page after a PASS or PIVOT — no second research pass, so it's $5 instead of $9. Read a sample execution plan →

Create your accountFree to start — the profile that calibrates every verdict costs nothing.

One-time purchases only. No subscription, no renewals, and credits never expire.

Who made this

One founder, running the engine on his own ideas first.

I'm Rui Luis. I kept asking ChatGPT whether my ideas were good, and it kept saying yes. So I built something that's allowed to say no — and pointed it at my own ideas first. The reports on this site are mine: run against my own budget, hours and skills, unedited, including the 10 that told me not to build.

Outside the app

Pull the verdict into wherever you already build.

Every report and business plan in your account is reachable over MCP (Model Context Protocol — the standard your AI client already speaks), straight from Claude Code, Claude Desktop, or Gemini CLI. Listing, reading, and searching your own reports is free with any account. Buy one $19 execution plan and it also unlocks drafting: a PRD, a landing page, or a go-to-market plan from any report, written by your own agent on your own usage, at no extra cost.

  • It can read your account, never write to it. Scoped to you alone — the same rule as everywhere else in this product.
  • Works where you already build. Claude Code, Claude Desktop, Gemini CLI.

Connect from Settings.

Questions

Before you run it on your own idea.

How long does a report take?

About 15 minutes, start to finish — sixteen sections with live research behind them. You'll get an email the moment it's ready, so there's nothing to sit and watch.

Do I need a finished idea, or just a hunch?

A hunch is enough — one paragraph on who it's for and what it does. If you already have something written down, attach it instead (markdown, plain text, or PDF) and the research reads that directly.

Can I use this from Claude or another coding agent, not just the browser?

Yes — list, read, and search your own reports and plans over MCP from Claude Code, Claude Desktop, or Gemini CLI, free with any account. Buy one $19 execution plan and the same connection can also draft a PRD, landing page, or go-to-market plan from any report, written by your own agent on your own usage.

Is my data visible to anyone else when I connect an AI agent?

No. Every tool is scoped to your own account at the database level — there's no way for a connected agent to read another customer's reports or plans, and the connection is read-only.

What do I get if the verdict is PASS?

The full report either way: sixteen sections, sourced receipts, and the specific reasons it said no. A PASS that saves you six months building the wrong thing is the point, not a consolation prize.

I got a PASS — did I just waste $9?

No. A PASS or PIVOT can name 1-2 concrete variants pulled from research the report already did, and the report page offers a discounted $5 follow-on report on the one worth chasing, instead of the usual $9. No second research pass, so it stays cheap — a no becomes your next report, not a dead end.

What if the sourcing is thin for my idea?

The report says so upfront — a coverage line names what was reachable and what wasn't, and thin signal is reported as a finding, not hidden. If generation fails outright, the credit it would have cost returns automatically, no need to ask.

Do reports expire?

No. Every report and pack you buy stays in your account with no expiry — see the pricing table above.

Can I change my founder profile after I’ve already run reports?

Any time, from Your profile. Past verdicts keep the constraints they were actually judged against, so an old report still shows what it was measured on even after you update your budget, hours, or goal.

Bring the idea you can't stop thinking about.

You'll get sixteen sections, sourced receipts, and a verdict calibrated to what you can actually afford to spend and how many hours you actually have.